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News - Market Insight - Market Insight 2025Market Insight: Half-year winners and losersFirst-half results reveal market shift as buyer confidence ebbs, SUV dominance flows7 Jul 2025 By MATT BROGAN THE Australian new-vehicle market is feeling the effects of economic pressures. As we cross the year’s half-way mark, VFACTS sales figures show 608,911 sales to June 30 – down 23,601 units (or 3.7 per cent) on the same time last year.
Adding the 14,146 Teslas and 1173 Polestars sold to the tally – no longer included in VFACTS due to a dispute with the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) but collated by the Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) instead – paints a slightly rosier picture with the year-on-year discrepancy reduced to 8282 units (a reduction of 1.3 per cent).
Even so, EVC numbers represent a stark 36.3 per cent plummet YTD, dragged down by Tesla’s 38.8 per cent slump while Polestar is up 23.6 per cent.
How the second half of 2025 will play out remains to be seen. Will an influx of new arrivals and early indications that some brands are continuing the discounting seen at EOFY help the Australian market match last year’s 1.2-million tally, or will sales continue to slide? That is a tough call to make.
Discounting and drive-away deals are encouraging the uptake of new-to-market entrants while serving to move dated stock for incumbents.
Yet Australians remain a predictable buyer set, adhering in no small part to familiar marques, often when better deals are available elsewhere in a particular market segment.
Looking across market segments on June 30, we see a continued trend away from passenger vehicles toward SUV and, to a lesser extent than previously, light commercial utilities.
Indeed, the top 10 list is now without a passenger vehicle while utes make up three of the top 10 vehicles sold.
The micro passenger segment offers fewer options than it has historically. Just two entrants share the segment, with the sensibly priced and well-packaged Kia Picanto faring far better than its only rival.
Segment sales are up 24.6 per cent to 3886 units, of which the Picanto accounted for 3679 sales (up 30 per cent), while the Fiat 500 and its related Abarth variant managed just 207 units, down 28.6 per cent.
Light passenger cars might be the go-to option for first-car buyers and downsizers, but it is a shrinking segment.
Total volume fell 13.2 per cent to 11,219 units in the sub-$30K category, where the Chinese-made MG 3 holds a significant lead with 5286 sales (down 14 per cent), well ahead of the dearer, and now hybrid-only, Toyota Yaris at 1524 units (up 12.6 per cent).
More light passenger vehicles exist in the over $30K part of the segment than under it. As we move up the price scale, segment volume jumped 42 per cent to 3077 units, with the Mini Cooper dominating at 1181 sales (up 52.2 per cent) and Peugeot’s 208 trailing the pack with just four units sold year-to-date.
Another once-popular segment in decline, the sub-$45K small passenger category saw volume drop 26.7 per cent to 27,911 units.
The Mazda 3 leads with 5599 sales (up 2.1 per cent), holding a 20-unit lead over the Hyundai i30 at the year’s midway point. Czech entrant Skoda places last with just 76 sales for the Scala, a year-on-year decline of 67.7 per cent.
As was the case in the light passenger segment, more entrants are offered in the dearer half of the small passenger segment.
While sales of 9277 units are down 14.5 per cent on June 2024, the MG 4 continues to perform well with 2268 sales (down 18.2 per cent), while the now-defunct Renault Megane quietly slips away with just one unit sold, down 95.7 per cent.
If the medium passenger under $60K segment were a ship, we would all be bailing water. Sales at the mid-year waypoint of 7326 units are down 55.9 per cent, with even the evergreen Toyota Camry feeling the pinch at 4259 sales (down 60.5 per cent). The Honda Accord trails far behind with just 60 delivered, down 29.4 per cent.
While FCAI figures show the medium passenger over $60K segment is struggling with volume down 79.6 per cent to 3493 units, figures published by the EVC indicate the Tesla Model 3 is bucking the trend.
While Model 3 sales are down 64.9 per cent, it outsells the BMW 3 Series by 222 units. The 3 Series managed 841 sales (down 44.3 per cent), while the Peugeot 508 scraped together just two units, down 94.6 per cent.
As Citroen leaves the Australian market, the Skoda Superb will go it alone in the large passenger under $70K segment. This segment as a whole is down 36.5 per cent year-on-year to 80 units, with the changeover to fourth-generation Superb accounting for 79 sales (down 21 per cent). The axed Citroen C5 X managed just one sale, down 96.2 per cent.
Overall large passenger vehicle sales are up slightly year-on-year, with segment volume rising 10.7 per cent to 1105 units. The Mercedes-Benz E-Class is performing particularly well with 297 sales (up 96.7 per cent). The Toyota Mirai trails the segment with just two units (down 66.7 per cent), the hydrogen-powered model still something of an experiment in Australia.
Big and beautiful they might be, but full-size passenger models sell in very small numbers. The good news is that sales are up 32.4 per cent to 192 units to the end of June, with the Porsche Panamera topping the list at 59 sales (up 96.7 per cent) – well ahead of the slow-selling Mercedes-Benz EQS sedan at two units, down 66.7 per cent.
If ever there was a vehicle that carries a segment, it is the Kia Carnival people mover.
Despite the segment hosting six vehicle entrants selling a combined 6292 vehicles YTD, it is the Carnival that holds an 82.2 per cent lion’s share with 5173 sales (up 13.1 per cent) in a segment that grew 14.7 per cent. The soon-to-be-replaced Volkswagen Caravelle managed just three sales.
It is hard to believe there are 11 entrants in the people movers over $70K segment – including four from Mercedes-Benz and three from Volkswagen.
Despite the number of entrants offered by each, it’s the Lexus LM that leads the sliding door syndicate Down Under with 163 sales (down 3.6 per cent) in a segment virtually flat at 795 units (up 0.5 per cent). The expensive and all-electric LDV Mifa 9 trails with three sales, though that is up 200 per cent.
The Ford Mustang continues to enthral Australian buyers, taking more than half of the sub-$90K sportscar segment share with 2859 deliveries (up 999.9 per cent as the new model ships). The Mustang almost single-handedly forced the segment up considerably to 4328 units (a 177.8 per cent lift) on the same time last year, though news here is not so good for the Nissan Z at 92 units, down 54.9 per cent.
The over-$90K side of the sports category has two-and-a-half times the entrants of the under $90K side but fails to attract anything like the same number of buyers. Down 18.9 per cent to 1853 units, the category is dominated by the BMW 2 Series coupe and convertible with 577 sales (down 35.9 per cent). Now replaced by the CLE, the Mercedes-Benz E-Class coupe found one sale.
Like the segment before it, the ‘big bucks’ side of the sports category is usually the first to be impacted by cuts in discretional spending.
Sales of most models are down in a segment that fell 14.6 per cent to 748 units, including the segment-leading Porsche 911, which slides 35.2 per cent to 289 units likely resulting from a recently introduced and as-yet incomplete line-up of facelifted models. The new Chevrolet Corvette E-Ray chalked up five sales.
The light SUV segment is an interesting one. Traditional brands including Mazda, Toyota, Kia and Hyundai perform well here, while many others come and go.
As Ford’s Puma exits, the Mazda CX-3 tops the leaderboard with 8221 sales (down 3.7 per cent), representing 29.9 per cent of the segment’s 27,537 units (up 3.3 per cent). Ford’s Puma managed just one sale.
The second best-selling SUV segment – sub-$45K small SUVs – is undergoing a great deal of change with volume jumping 12.2 per cent to 81,781 units.
While the Hyundai Kona dominates with 11,241 sales (up 25.6 per cent), the new Chery Tiggo 4 is performing well. The inbound Renault Duster registered just two deliveries, likely demonstrators at this early stage.
While the dearer side of the small SUV coin is less popular than the mainstream end, it remains in the black at the year’s midway point with 20,844 units (up 2.2 per cent).
Volkswagen’s T-Roc remains a popular choice here with 2895 sales (down 29.3 per cent), taking 13.9 per cent of the segment, while the Genesis GV60 maintains its grip on the wooden spoon with nine units, down 80.4 per cent.
The sub-$60K medium SUV category has become the go-to segment for Australian families, taking an impressive 18.9 per cent of the total market with 115,164 units (up 2.8 per cent).
As usual, Toyota’s RAV4 holds the lead here with 24,034 sales (down 5.4 per cent), comfortably ahead of the Mazda CX-5, while the new all-electric Skoda Elroq, like the smaller Renault Duster, shows two units (likely demonstrators) delivered.
With 33 entrants, the over-$60K medium SUV might be Australia’s most-populated new car category, but it is one that sells less than a fifth of its mainstream counterpart.
Segment volume rose 5.3 per cent to 33,327 units. For June 2025, we find the Tesla Model Y on top of the ‘over $60K’ podium with 10,431 sales (down 16.7 per cent), well ahead of the slow-selling Peugeot 5008 at four units, down 77.8 per cent.
With a mix of on- and off-road favourites, as well as two- and three-row options, the large SUVs under $80K segment is a hotly contended category that is home to no fewer than 27 entrants.
Despite the competition, the Toyota LandCruiser Prado tops the pops with 15,583 sales (up 345.5 per cent owing to long-awaited arrival of a new generation model), holding a 21.7 per cent slice of the seven-seat pie in a segment that grew 14.8 per cent to 71,878 units. The Mazda CX-9 that was officially discontinued last year managed just one sale.
Quite a few contenders have departed the over-$80K large SUV segment in the past 12 months, leaving a greater share of the action to rivals.
Segment volume rose 4.3 per cent to 13,358 units, with the BMW X5 the segment’s strongest seller at 1998 units (up 24.6 per cent), ahead of the Land Rover Defender which trails by just 30 units at the year’s halfway mark. The all-electric Jaguar I-Pace that ceased production late last year scraped together three sales, down 40 per cent.
Despite having just four entrants – and three 4WDs – the upper large SUVs under $120K segment certainly sells its share of volume.
Segment sales fell 27 per cent to 9290 units, the Toyota LandCruiser leading with 5108 sales (down 37.7 per cent), ahead of the Nissan Patrol's 3779 units (down 4.2 per cent). The Land Rover Discovery (238 sold, down 12.8 per cent) leads the all-electric Kia EV9 (165 sales, down 47.3 per cent).
It is interesting to see the arrival of four new entrants in the over-$120K upper large SUV category in recent times – and no departures at all – helping segment volume jump 31.3 per cent to 2457 units.
The BMW X7 leads with 544 sales (down 3.9 per cent), ahead of the new Lexus GX by just three units, well ahead of the Mercedes-Benz GLS (325), Lexus LX (281) and Land Rover Range Rover (224). The new Lotus Eletre achieved five sales.
Switching gears to the light bus (less than 20 seats) segment, it seems like a great time to be a Toyota HiAce Commuter salesperson, the model holding an 86.3 per cent share with 2088 sales (up 93 per cent) and do the heavy lifting in overall segment growth of 68.3 per cent, to 2419 units YTD.
The segment is home to five entrants, including the Ford Transit (86), LDV Deliver 9 (178), Mercedes-Benz Sprinter (42) and Renault Master (25).
With the Fuso Rosa consigned to the history books, the Toyota Coaster has the commuter bus segment all to its own. That advantage is displayed in segment sales of 344 units, up 144 per cent on the same time last year, all of course playing to the advantage of importer Toyota Australia.
Just three entrants compete in the vans/cab-chassis under 2500kg segment, which is up 5.4 per cent over June 2024 with 757 sales. Taking gold is the Volkswagen Caddy with 430 sales (up 9.1 per cent), the Peugeot Partner taking silver with 210 sales and the Renault Kangoo bronze with 117 (up 178.6 per cent).
You know the economy is wobbling when sales of vehicles in the vans/cab-chassis 2500-3500kg category begin to falter. Down eight per cent year-on-year to 11,669 units, the eleven-strong segment is topped by the Toyota HiAce with 5794 sales (up 2.3 per cent) – which holds a 49.7 per cent market share – and tailed by the LDV V80 with 37 units (down 81.4 per cent).
Traditional market players appear to have the run of the‘4x2 ute segment, with many newer marques opting to compete only on the 4x4 side of the equation.
Segment volume fell 16.9 per cent to 11,613 units. Here, the Toyota HiLux takes the majority share with 4022 sales (up 13.8 per cent) ahead of the Isuzu D-Max, Ford Ranger, Mazda BT-50 and Mitsubishi Triton. The LDV T60 managed eight sales.
Eighteen entrants now battle it out in the 4x4 ute segment, double that of the 4x2 category. Segment volume was virtually flat at 108,105 units (up 0.1 per cent).
While Ford’s Ranger with 26,671 sales (down 12.9 per cent) and Toyota’s HiLux continue to dominate, the BYD Shark 6 (10,424) is chomping away at third-placed Isuzu D-Max (10,956) and will likely place third by the year’s end. The new LDV Terron 9 registered 11 deliveries (likely demonstrators).
Has the lustre worn off the full-size US pickup truck category? It is beginning to appear that way. Segment sales of 4393 units are down 13.4 per cent, with even the category’s best seller – the Ram 1500 at 1375 units – down a sizeable 19.6 per cent. Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota trail one another in that order. The Ram 3500 managed just seven sales, down 80.6 per cent.
Looking at the model-by-model leaderboard for the first half of 2025, combined two- and four-wheel drive ute segment sales of the Ford Ranger, Toyota HiLux and Isuzu D-Max placed the trio comfortably in the YTD top 10 on June 30.
While each has lost ground to an influx of newcomers – almost all from China – the market share held remains significant and is unlikely to change a great deal between now and the end of 2025.
Of course, that leaves the remaining seven entrants as SUVs, two of which – the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado and Ford Everest – offer significant off-road capabilities, appealing to those with an adventurous spirit, a penchant for towing, or both.
Four of the remaining SUV contenders compete within the sub-$60K medium category, where the Toyota RAV4 outpaces the Mazda CX-5 by more than a factor of two.
The Mazda CX-5 tops the Mitsubishi Outlander by less than 600 units, while the Mitsubishi Outlander outsells the Kia Sportage by almost 850 examples.
That leaves the Hyundai Kona as the only entrant from outside the categories listed above. Occupying small SUVs under $45K category, the model holds a steady place in the top 10, deviating little from its mid-year position of 2024.
Top 10 sellers YTD as of 30 June 2025
*All figures supplied courtesy of the FCAI and the Electric Vehicle Council  Read more30th of June 2025  Market Insight: Chinese cars gain in EuropeChinese-made cars smash Euro sales records; Australian market share growth continues23rd of June 2025  Market Insight: Superb to go it aloneSuperb will have sub-$70K large passenger segment to itself; a good thing, says Skoda |
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